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Arsenal will most likely miss out on a place in next season’s Champions League – with their fate set to be decided when they visit Stoke on 13 May, according to a sports analysis group.
The Gunners – seven points off fourth place with eight games left – have not finished outside the top four during Arsene Wenger’s 21-year reign.
But data company Gracenote Sports suggests that run will end on the penultimate weekend of the season – if the top four clubs continue to take points at the rate they have so far.
The calculations have been made more difficult by the fact that a number of Premier League fixtures still have to be rearranged – including two for Arsenal, and one each for fellow Champions League contenders Manchester City and Manchester United.
But Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports, told BBC Sport: “If all those in the top four had played 36 matches by 13 May, Arsenal would go into their match at Stoke City six points behind Manchester City and Liverpool.
“Points for either of them – or no win for Arsenal at Stoke – would mean that there was no longer a chance of a top-four place.”
Gleave suggested that the cut-off could come sooner for Arsenal, currently sixth, based on recent form.
That is because they have taken fewer points per match since the turn of the year than they did in the first part of the season.
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